Saturday, February 28, 2009

Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett got screwed

Should I feel good about this, or bad because I bought a share of BRK.B recently?

From the Motley Fool:
"But in September 2008, Peter Lynch also had the ignominious honor of holding bothAIG (NYSE: AIG) and Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) in his personal portfolio -- as they dropped 82% and 76%, respectively, during that month alone."

Warren Buffet in the meantime:
The dumbest, he said, was buying a large amount of Conoco Phillips stock when oil prices were near their peak and in no way anticipating the dramatic drop in prices that subsequently occurred. Buffett said he still thinks the odds are good that oil will sell in the future at much higher prices than the $40 to $50 per barrel now prevailing. But even if prices should rise, he said, "the terrible timing" of the Conoco purchase has cost Berkshire several billion dollars.

A couple things, the prediction about higher oil prices mirrors what a wide assortment of other experts think. Pretty much the only guy I can think of who thinks otherwise is podcaster John C. Dvorak, who made one good bet by shorting oil at $135 a barrel.

Do I put a sell stop on Berkshire? Even though I'm down about $500, I think I better.







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