The Disciplined Investor #99

Andrew Horowitz is getting bullish for a 'dead cat bounce'. His guest from TrimTabs is about as bearish as you can be. Notes on TDI Podcast 99:

• This could be the start of a dead cat bounce
• If you look at the charts on TDI site there are some indicators that look severely oversold
• Wade in
• Dip your toes, not dive in
• A rally is inevitable, sooner or later
• Be careful. Be disciplined
• Clear that we are hitting a low point here
• However, the negativity can go on for a long period of time
• Doug Kass, who is very highly respected, is taking his foot off the pedal of the shorts and going long
• Bill Fleckenstein said he wouldn't invest in his own fund (Grizzly Short Fund)
• Declining volume on the selling
• At the end of the quarter, fund managers will rebalance to maintain their stock/bound ratios (e.g., they will move from cash to stock)
• Is it enough to spark a bear market rally? Its still a dead cat bounce remember.
• (TrimTabs) the market turns around generally when companies start buying back shares hand over fist, and they ain't doing that. They are doing the opposite.
  
• (TrimTabs) Incomes are plunging
• (TrimTabs) People are forced to sell stock to survive
• (TrimTabs) The fundamentals are horrible!
• (TrimTabs) 24 trillion in loans out there, and income is down hugely. Guess what can happen there?
  
• (TrimTabs) Several European countries will go bankrupt this year. Euro less than parity.
• (TrimTabs) FDIC has no money, they collect money and give it to the Treasury who spends it, giving them a note in return.
  
• (TrimTabs) Things are probably going to get worse before they get better
• (TrimTabs) Government stats are wrong, wrong, wrong. They use old data
• (TrimTabs) Obama's 'Save or Create' will do nothing essentially
• (TrimTabs) Prediction - S&P 500 could go to around 500
• (TrimTabs) Diary of a Stock Market Operator - moral: he got back in too soon
• (TrimTabs) Wait until companies start buying back shares and buying other companies for cash, thats the bottom. Until that happens, stay away!
• Watch the charts and indictors
• I like the 2 minute stochastics
• Short the double shorts
• Use the Edge Strategy
  

His charts are interesting. VIX (Volatility or Fear Index) is tightening.